MCX revenue seen growing 19% annually through FY30, says Macquarie
28 Sept, 10:53 IST · Plays out over months · 1 source
Macquarie expects MCX sales to grow 19% a year through FY30, helping the exchange and fellow market firms, with no clear loser.
Key facts
What the reporting establishes, before any reading of it.
- MCX revenue seen growing 19% annually through FY30
- Traded client count at 2.1 million
- Options notional turnover seen at Rs 3,220 lakh crore by FY30
How the news spreads
Step by step — from the first companies it hits to whole sectors.
Who it hits first
- Macquarie, a brokerage, forecast that MCX will grow its sales by 19% a year through FY30.
- MCX, India's commodity futures and options exchange, already counts 2.1 million traded clients.
- Macquarie sees options turnover reaching Rs 3,220 lakh crore by FY30 on that client growth.
Who may gain
- MCX shareholders, who gain from faster fee income as trading grows
- BSE shareholders, as a fellow exchange riding the same rise in traders
- CDSL shareholders, as more traders can mean more demat accounts
Along the supply chain
Downstream
Brokers, traders and clearing members that route commodity orders through MCX gain more business as volumes and turnover climb toward Rs 3,220 lakh crore.
Upstream
CDSL, a depository that holds shares and settles trades for brokers, gains if MCX's client growth brings new demat accounts and settlements.
Where demand moves
Business
MCX earns fees from each commodity trade, so 19% yearly sales growth means many more trades from its 2.1 million clients; BSE and CDSL see a lighter lift as overall market activity rises, while power trading at IEX stays separate.
Capital
Investors are likely to buy MCX on the strong outlook, with some spillover buying into BSE and CDSL as fellow market-infrastructure shares, while IEX sees little fresh flow.
How it spreads across sectors
Financial Services
Exchange and depository shares firm on the growth outlook, with no wider bank or insurer impact since the call is MCX-specific.
When it plays out
Immediate
Next 1-7 days: MCX shares firm on the 19% growth call; BSE and CDSL edge up on sympathy.
Medium term
Next 1-6 months: Quarterly results show whether 19% growth and 2.1 million clients are compounding as Macquarie expects.
Short term
Next 1-4 weeks: Traders watch MCX volumes and client adds to confirm the path toward Rs 3,220 lakh crore.