Pace Digitek Limited

Who it hits first

• Bharti Airtel, Reliance Jio, Vodafone Idea ARPU rises 12-15% on tariff hike
• Service-provider revenue/EBITDA uplift with high drop-through

Who may gain

• Bharti Airtel (premium mix, low churn)
• Reliance Jio (largest base)
• Bharti Hexacom (growth circles)

Along the supply chain

Where demand moves

How it spreads across sectors

When it plays out

Who it hits first

• EV/e-bus and Li-ion cell makers face input-cost inflation: OLAELEC (cells ~31.7% of cost), OLECTRA, JBMA, EXICOM, PACEDIGITK (cells ~54% of cost)
• Lithium-chemical processors NEOGEN (carbonate/hydroxide) and INDOBORAX see feedstock cost up with partial pass-through to realizations
• Battery maker ARE&M (Amara Raja) sees Li-ion gigafactory ramp-cost pressure, partly offset by its legacy lead-acid base

Who may gain

• Lead-acid / non-lithium battery incumbents (ARE&M legacy, EXIDEIND, HBLPOWER) if a widening Li-ion cost gap slows EV substitution
• ICE two-wheeler OEMs (HEROMOTOCO, BAJAJ-AUTO) on relative demand if EV payback worsens
• Lithium-resource optionality plays (NMDC, MOIL, HINDZINC) on critical-mineral sentiment

Along the supply chain

Where demand moves

How it spreads across sectors

Commodity angle

A pattern seen before

When it plays out

Other sectors it reaches

• {"causal_chain":"Higher lithium lifts BESS costs -\u003e grid-scale storage economics weaken -\u003e renewable-plus-storage bids face higher tariffs/delays","direction":"mixed","example_tickers":["NTPC","TATAPOWER","JSWENERGY"],"magnitude":"medium","notes":"Negative for storage-heavy renewable economics; positive for firm power if storage adoption slows.","sector":"Power Utilities and Renewable Energy","time_horizon":"1_to_6_months"}
• {"causal_chain":"Costlier batteries slow distributed storage -\u003e grid balancing leans on T\u0026D upgrades","direction":"positive","example_tickers":["POWERGRID","KALPATARU","KEC"],"magnitude":"small","notes":"Indirect but defensible.","sector":"Power Transmission and Grid Equipment","time_horizon":"1_to_6_months"}
• {"causal_chain":"Higher lithium raises EV prices -\u003e EV payback worsens -\u003e fuel-demand erosion slows","direction":"positive","example_tickers":["IOC","BPCL","HINDPETRO"],"magnitude":"small","notes":"Limited by early EV penetration.","sector":"Oil Marketing and Refining","time_horizon":"1_to_6_months"}
• {"causal_chain":"Battery cost inflation pressures e-scooter pricing -\u003e consumers defer EV or choose petrol -\u003e ICE incumbents gain relative demand","direction":"positive","example_tickers":["HEROMOTOCO","BAJAJ-AUTO","TVSMOTOR"],"magnitude":"medium","notes":"TVS/Bajaj have EV exposure so net is mixed for them.","sector":"Two-Wheeler ICE OEMs","time_horizon":"1_to_4_weeks"}
• {"causal_chain":"Higher EV cost -\u003e larger tickets but weaker affordability/residual-value confidence","direction":"mixed","example_tickers":["M\u0026MFIN","BAJFINANCE","CHOLAFIN"],"magnitude":"small","notes":"Negative for EV-fleet lenders if utilization weakens.","sector":"Auto Finance and NBFCs","time_horizon":"1_to_6_months"}
• {"causal_chain":"Higher battery prices raise EV fleet capex -\u003e electrification savings shrink","direction":"negative","example_tickers":["ZOMATO","DELHIVERY","BLUEDART"],"magnitude":"small","notes":"Mostly indirect via fleet partners.","sector":"Urban Mobility, Logistics and Delivery Platforms","time_horizon":"1_to_6_months"}
• {"causal_chain":"Costlier storage delays battery-backed renewable substitution -\u003e firm thermal stays relevant for balancing","direction":"positive","example_tickers":["COALINDIA","NTPC","NLCINDIA"],"magnitude":"small","notes":"Relative/timing benefit, not structural reversal.","sector":"Thermal Power and Coal Value Chain","time_horizon":"1_to_6_months"}
• {"causal_chain":"Lithium rally improves relative economics of sodium-ion/zinc/advanced lead-acid","direction":"positive","example_tickers":["AMARAJABAT","EXIDEIND","HBLPOWER"],"magnitude":"medium","notes":"Depends on commercial readiness; lead-acid gains in backup niches.","sector":"Non-Lithium Battery Technologies","time_horizon":"1_to_6_months"}
• {"causal_chain":"Battery packs are major BOM in devices/portable power -\u003e higher cell cost compresses EMS margins","direction":"negative","example_tickers":["DIXON","KAYNES","SYRMA"],"magnitude":"small","notes":"Larger where pass-through is slow.","sector":"Electronics Manufacturing Services","time_horizon":"1_to_4_weeks"}
• {"causal_chain":"Sustained high lithium incentivizes domestic critical-mineral exploration/auctions/tie-ups","direction":"positive","example_tickers":["NMDC","MOIL","HINDZINC"],"magnitude":"small","notes":"Limited listed pure-play exposure; sentiment/optionality.","sector":"Mining and Mineral Exploration","time_horizon":"1_to_6_months"}